One year ago at the South East LinuxFest, I, Beth Lynn Eicher indulged in a friendly bet with my friend Nick. “Ubuntu’s Bug One will be resolved in 24 months,” I said. “I’ll bet you $20 that bug one is not resolved in 24 months… but I hope I use.” I said, “You are on!” For those just joining us, “bug one” is “Microsoft will lose majority market share” which was first issue reported by Mark Shuttleworth, founder of Canonical – the company behind the GNU/Linux distribution Ubuntu.
I started this blog to keep personal notes of what exactly is Microsoft’s market share. Never did I ever expect a crowd of 28,460 unique visitors to care about what will we use when Microsoft has a minority market share. Thank you all for making me the tribal user of What Will We Use where we watch Microsoft’s market share until FY 2011 close.
There were only 3 which held any merit as of June 2009: Desktops, Browsers, and Office Suites.
How are we doing one year into it?
1. Desktop Operating Systems
In the past twelve months Windows market share went from 88.09% to 83.11%. The Windows XP product, which continues to hold the largest market share went from 69.74% to 49.95% of the total desktop operating system market share. The trend is showing as people divest from older Microsoft technologies, they do not “upgrade” to Windows Vista or Windows 7.
The next 12 months will bring a new breed of tablets and notebooks which will run Ubuntu on ARM. These will sell like hot cakes so that people can watch Google’s youtube and play games of Facebook. The desktop is over, even in the corporate sector.
Here’s the dirty secret behind this mind-boggling growth — and the two words that will put an end to the party
IT consulting firm IDC reports that every dollar a company spends on a Microsoft product results in an additional $8 of IT expenses.
And one IT expert admits, “Trillions of dollars that companies have invested into information technology have gone to waste.”
Yet, companies have had no choice but to run these obscenely expensive and highly inefficient networks.
But that’s all about to change…
And that’s precisely why the two words “cloud computing” scare the hell out of Bill Gates.
And Nicholas Carr, former executive editor of the Harvard Business Review, has even written an entire book on the subject, entitled The Big Switch. In it, he asserts: “The PC age is giving way to a new era: the utility age.”
He goes on to make this prediction: “Rendered obsolete, the traditional PC is replaced by a simple terminal — a ‘thin client’ that’s little more than a monitor hooked up to the Internet.”
While that may sound far-fetched, in the corporate market, sales of these “thin clients” have been growing at over 20 percent per year — far outpacing the sales of PCs.
According to market-research firm IDC, the U.S. is now home to more than 7,000 data centers just like the one constructed on the banks of the Columbia River in 2005.
And the number of servers operating within these massive data centers is expected to grow to nearly 16 million by 2010 — that’s three times as many as a decade ago.
quote courtesy of Motely Fool Newsletter called
2. Web Browsers
In the past twelve months Internet Explorer went from 57.6% to 45.7%. As far as Nick and I are concerned, this one is won in my favor. It is still fun to watch low low can Microsoft go? Google’s decision to turn off youtube.com support for older browsers was a fatal blow for IE6. All market share browser counters show Microsoft hemorrhaging market share. In June 30, 2011. IE9 will not save Microsoft since they have decided to not support it on Windows XP. Since Microsoft’s key operating system user demographic is XP, turning their back on their legacy customers will be the last straw. Seriously, how many people are going to buy a new PC just to run a proprietary web browser when Firefox and Chrome are free?
3. Office Suites
It is very possible I have this one won too. Last month I proposed to Nick that we use Oracle’s OpenOffice.Org download figures to count as missed profit opportunity. As of the time of this post OpenOffice.Org 3.x has 159,894,085 downloads which represents $55,962,929,750 loss. That’s Almost 56 MILLION dollars that Microsoft coulda-shoulda-woulda had. Will Microsoft make that level of profits in their business software division come FY2011 market share reports?
Meanwhile, Google Apps continues to pick up market share with their Microsoft Exchange migration tool…
Over 500,000 companies — including GE [NYSE: GE] and Procter & Gamble [NYSE: PG] — have already signed up for Google Apps.
This grab bag of business applications can be purchased and run over the Web for just $50 per year and is just one of many Google products now giving Microsoft a run for its money.
Considering that Google Apps costs just one-tenth of what a traditional business software suite does, it’s no surprise that more than 2,000 businesses are signing up per day.
quote courtesy of Motely Fool Newsletter called
Microsoft’s Sharepoint product which is heavily tied to Microsoft Office 2007 is not for long either. Customers seeking to use free software to manage their intra-net content can do so with Alfresco. They’ll even help you migrate.
I am as confident as ever in my assertion.
Yes indeed Bug One will be RESOLVED.
Nick will pay me $20.
We will win the war. We are at war with Microsoft. We have always been at war with Microsoft. Come June 30, 2011 Microsoft will lose majority market share.