Forecasts for 2010, 2011, and beyond

This website and associated services has cost me over $350 for the full 2 years of service. I admit that it is a little silly

Some cold days ahead for Microsoft, thanks to radix999 on flickr

over a $20 bet. When some people make predictions, they say something without ever expecting any accountability. By being as public as possible, I have the opportunity to document the process. I celebrate both the journey and the eventual victory. Some people fly to Las Vegas for March Madness to place a wager on their favorite teams where the wager itself costs more than the trip. No matter how this goes, Nick and I are having a blast along the way.

Discussing the fate of Microsoft been so much fun, one commenter we only know as darryl wants in on the action. My hesitation is not about the money I will not bet you, darryl, 1000 United States dollars because I do not know you. Moreover, your IP address suggests you are from Australia so I don’t know how we could set up such an arrangement. By the way, you never answered my question regarding if you are a Microsoft employee.

In any case, this is my counter offer. I buy 33 shares of Red Hat. You buy 66 shares of Microsoft. Since both companies stock prices are about $30/share, we will accomplish the same idea as your proposal without ever having to meet.

For the record, I never said that Microsoft is evil. It is actually a little said says I, a Microsoft user since 1992 and a Linux user since 1999. Microsoft used to make products which made customers happy. That all changed with Vista. Without Bill Gates, Microsoft has been sinking in turbulent seas. So what is Microsoft doing about it? They’re hiring a “Competitive Marketing Manager.” and strangely, I meet the qualifications. Should I apply?

Nah… I will just stick to my wacky prediction:

Come June 30, 2011, Microsoft will no longer have majority market share.

Since I am footing the hosting bill of, I invite you, the reader, to make your own technology prediction for 2010-2011 on my hosting dime by leaving a comment in this post. I promise to continue to host this post until at least January 4, 2012 to see what happens just for fun.

Here are some examples to get you started…

What will happen with the mobile market?

Will MySQL fork?

What will the clouds look like a year from now?

Will Steve Ballmer be fired?

How far will Apple’s market share grow?

I predicted last month that W3Counter would deliver a less-than-50% IE use on the February 2010 report thus winning 1/3 of the bet.

As I close this post, I wish to toast Microsoft itself, as your Windows have seen better days but bravo for shipping Windows 7 before calendar 2010….

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7 Responses to Forecasts for 2010, 2011, and beyond

  1. What Will We Use Editor says:

    One more prediction, we will see a drop in Windows 7 use in June 2010 as the RC users get sick of the forced rebooting.

  2. What Will We Use Editor says:

    It looks like Motley Fool is on my side regarding RHT v MSFT

  3. Michael says:

    “Microsoft used to make products which made customers happy. That all changed with Vista.”

    Well that’s somewhat revisionist. They and Intel were out shooting kneecaps from well before 1992, forcing any and all competitors out of business using very shady techniques and pushing overpriced rubbish to customers. They’re really about as evil as it gets, at least in the software industry (not quite on the level of a monsanto, or nestle, to be sure).

    Even as far back as DOS everyone used to say ‘never trust a .0 version, wait at least for .1’. Then there were software tests which made their software ‘unstable’ on alternative DOS’s, or undocumented APIs. It just goes on and on. BillG was a nasty piece of work (just read some of the comes exhibits, or even his initial ‘everyone’s stealing my work’ post on fidonet or whatever it was), even if Ballmer is completely off the scale of nuttyness.

    (‘survey results’ just show that the lying industry was already active way back when, giving cooked results to satisfy their paying customers, and that the paying customers knew how to work the populace).

  4. darryl says:

    May 2007, way to keep up to date with the times, and the state of the art.

    It’s 2010 now !!, and as I said when vista was released it was premature, as was the last Ubuntu release, and there were problems with vista when it was first released, but that was YEARS AGO, have you actually tried it in the past few years ?

    Customer satisifaction for Vista is actually quite good, and if you like I will provide the links to confirm my claims, as I like to deal in facts.

    As for your bet, and you’re backing out thats fine, but if you want to invest in RH go for it, you never know one day they might even get back up to their list price, of over $42 dollars.

    MSFT’s list price was well less than a dollar a share, MSFT has had 9 stock splits since it listed. therefore you one stock purchased in 1986 is now 288 shares. (all at $30 each).

    Do you happen to know RH’s P/E ratio ? it’s about 66 and the 12 month forcast is for a lower stock price then is it at present.

    RHT does not pay a divident, and with a P/E of 66 you would expect to wait rouoghly 66 years to get you’re investment back.

    So RH had a very short period on the DOT.COM bubble, got to $60 something dollars, and then dropped to $3.50, and has yet to get back up to it’s original list price.

    So ive called you’re bluff, if you actually believed in you’re claims, and you’re willing to pay $350 to promote a $20 bet, yet you’re not sure of yourself enough to take me up on my challenge.

    But I would not suggest you buy RH shares, not a good investment at all.

    Dont believe me, look it up you’re self, knowledge is more important than spelline 🙂

  5. darryl says:

    “It also supports what I find talking to customers out there in the field – those who have a negative perception either tried Vista in the early days and had problems or haven’t actually tried it and have based their upgrade policy based on what they hear or read in the press. To those people, I challenge them to have another look. ”

    “The ones who are actually using it are now having positive experiences! I presented to customers last week and asked them who was using Vista – all their hands went up. “Great”, I thought. Then, the big question – “who’s had a good experience with Vista so far” – some hands went down, but some remained up. To those who put their hands down I asked, “Are these recent bad experiences?” and people were shaking their heads.

    So more hangovers from the first year of Vista there then. ”

    thats only one link, but it’s a bit more up to date than you’re, you might with to do a google search or two to make sure you have your facts straight.

  6. darryl says:

    hmmm just what I thought, not willing to actually stand by you’re claims, sure $20 is ok to lose, but my offer was to you or ANYONE else who actually believed you’re claims.

    That fact you or no one else is willing to take me up, is very very telling.

    I called you’re bluff, and you folded.

  7. Pingback: What will I buy? – What Will We Use on June 30, 2011?

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