Thank you Red Hat!

image

From wplug.org visit of the Red Hat labs of The Gates Center of Computer Science cs.cmu.edu

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Charting it out – How will market share change?

Behold, for all to view… the numbers which show Microsoft will lose a majority market share in operating systems this Summer…

For those wondering the answer: What will we use if Microsoft is not the majority market share?
The answer is iOS and Linux. Apple and Google Android tablets will be the back to school computer of choice as of this summer creating a devastating trend for Microsoft.

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Bug One Resolved at the Gates Center of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon Universtiy thanks to Red Hat Inc.


From where I stand, I see Linux and Apple-based products winning big in the months ahead. How can I hold such unwavering optimism? Over ten years I have a decent salary supporting Linux products, with my career starting at Carnegie Mellon using Red Hat products. A combination of UNIX workstations including Red Hat, Fedora, Solaris, IRIX, and MacOSX held a majority of the desktop market share at the CMU School of Computer Science during the time of my employment of 2001-2006.

Microsoft is unable to buy market share at top Computer Science universities such as Carnegie Mellon. Despite a 20 million dollar grant from the Bill and Melinda Foundation, desktop users still prefer Linux to Microsoft Windows. Inside the very house that Gates built, you will not find a single Windows computer in their labs. Red Hat fixed that by funding computer labs there.

I will personally pay a visit to the Red Hat labs at Carnegie Mellon University on Monday March 7 – and you are welcome to join me. Just sign up!

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Will The People of China Pay For Microsoft Software?

Steve Ballmer was in a meeting with the president of China, and has made the news for claiming that 90% of Microsoft software in China is being used by people who didn’t pay Microsoft for a license.

I have no idea how accurate their estimate is or exactly how they got it, but that’s not something I’m worried about here.

Most of the articles that I’ve seen about it are more focused on what could be done to fix this. They particularly focus on issues like whether China’s government itself will take more action to cut down on the use of unlicensed software.

There’s another question here, though. Statistics from just a couple of months ago still show that 45.2% of Internet users in China are using IE6. Considering that you can’t run IE6 on the latest Microsoft operating systems, they’re not just using software that they haven’t paid Microsoft for, they’re using really old software that they haven’t paid Microsoft for.

If the company gets the crackdown that they want, what’s going to happen to their market share? We’re talking about a large population of people who are used to not having to pay for their operating system and aren’t already accustomed to using the most modern versions of Windows. A crackdown would put them in the position of having to pay money they’re not used to paying for software that’s gone through some fairly major interface changes compared to what they’re used to using.

Cracking down will probably get some people to pay, but others may very well decide to have a look at the alternatives that are still free. Depending on how the people of China feel about Microsoft demanding that they pay up, this could have serious implications for the company’s market share.

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What will we buy?

Americans today celebrate “Black Friday.” Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, most workers have this day off so they head to the shops to spend their Christmas giving money. The outcome of the bet that kicked off this blog: “Microsoft will lose a majority market share come June 30, 2011” largely depends on people’s Christmas spending behavior.

What will we buy?

To answer this question I took to the malls earlier this week.

A Microsoft Windows Mobile 7 phoneWindows Mobile 7 phone ad?

There a Windows Mobile 7 ad was a placemat in the mall food court. The same ad was on the mall doors. Even if I wanted this phone after seeing this add, this product was hard to be found. Only the AT&T store seemed to be selling the Microsoft product. I visited the store and saw one sales person who was aggressively standing in the mall coordinator to attempt to invite shoppers into his store.

What will we buy instead?

The Verizon store was too busy selling Apple iPads, 7 inch Samsung
Galaxy Tab
Tablets with Google Android, and the “Droid” line of
Android phones. The T-Mobile Store was too busy selling the Galaxy Tabs
and other Android products. The Sprint store is enjoying sales of the
4G Evo Android phone and the HP Palm WebOS (Linux) phone. RadioShack, a
store that sells phones under many carriers was not selling any
Microsoft phones.

The Barnes and Noble were selling their Android color book reader called the Nook. Even though this product has impressive hardware for an eReader, it unfortunately lacks access to the Android market.

Sears had three Android devices to sell this weekend: The 10 inch Viewsonic G-Tablet, the 7 inch Pandigital eReader, and the Velocity Micro 7inch Tablet.

But what about those Windows 7 netbooks which are subsidized cost by Mobile Wireless plans?

win netboooks and android galaxy tabs

At the Verizon store there was a line to touch the Galaxy Tab and the iPad. Once I got my turn, I snapped the photo to the right. Note that there are two netbooks positioned above the Galaxy Tabs. To the right, not pictured, was the line to see the iPad. Nobody was here to buy the Microsoft netbooks. Everyone was here to lay their hands on the tablets.

Sears is also selling the 7″ Sylvania netbook with runs WindowsCE, a 15 year old operating
system from Microsoft. This device is sure to disappoint customers as it lacks full Flash functionality for YouTube and Facebook games.

OK commenter. What will you buy this holiday season?

A. A Microsoft-powered phone/netbook/tablet?

B. An Apple product which uses iOS such as iPhone, iPad, or iPod
Shuffle.

C. An Apple product which uses MacOSX such as the Airbook.

D. An Android-powered phone, tablet, or eReader.

E. Waiting for stores to carry an ARM-powered Ubuntu or ChromeOS device.

F. none of the above…. Please explain….

Please
Santa, I have been a good girl and I have only one wish: Microsoft will
lack a majority market share come June 30, 2010.

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The desktop market share

Regular readers of this blog, whatwillweuse.com, know that we have been trying to track the desktop market share. We endorse W3Conter’s no-cost analytic service and their market share reports.

As of October 31, according to w3counter:

  • Microsoft Windows holds 79.69% market share, a 1.53% decrease from last month.
  • Windows XP is the most predominate at 44.17%.
  • GNU/Linux has a 1.49% market share.
  • Iphone has 1.31% market share.
  • Android has 0.25%.
  • Internet Explorer continues to plummet. We are now using IE 41.6% which is down by 1.7% from last month.
  • Don’t believe the FUD. There is no significant market share of IE9.

Microsoft’s market share is surely on the decline but will it have a minority market share come June 30, 2010?

Measuring market share is much more difficult that we had anticipated when we embarked on this project in June 2009. Web traffic is certainly an indicator of trends but it is highly skewed to the American and English speaking world who visits commercial websites. W3counter is the best in class since they have better global and website type diversity.

It is due to the web analytic market share counters that the myth of “Linux is 1% of the market share” persists. We present three reasons below.

1. Totally off-the grid systems do not get counted.

  • 1,494,500 deployed by One Laptop Per Child.
  • Red Hat Enterprise Linux desktops, SuSE Enterprise Linux Desktop, or Ubuntu desktops on corporate or government networks behind a firewall.
  • Appliance deployments like cash registers.

2. Nor do research institutions and Universities get properly counted.

For example, Carnegie Mellon University School of Computer Science uses Fedora on the desktop but it does not show up in Fedora’s update statistics. Why? The version of Fedora is so heavily customized to the environment that it needs its own update mechanism. None the less, with 26,307,719 unique ip addresses getting Fedora updates, Fedora alone must have have greater than 1% desktop market share.

3. I agree with Caitlyn Martin, with all of the netbook sales, something is not adding up.

A commenter asked for a 2009 and a 2010 market share report for netbooks. Here is one from November 2009 reporting 1/3 Linux market share. Regretfully, I have nothing for 2010 since the scoop is that netbooks are losing market share overall to iPad tablets. Never fear Linux Fans, The Android Samsung Galaxy Tab 7″ tablet has only been out for a month and has been selling nicely. By the way, Microsoft still lacks a significant market share in tablets.

We won’t stand for the lies behind the 1% myth any more.

We as non-Microsoft users need to stand up and say what we are using. If you use GNU/Linux, I urge you to participate in the Dudalibre “We > 1%” campaign. It takes one minute to say which distro you use.

We > 1%

Poke for my Fedora Friends: Does Fedora really only have 2.84% of the Linux desktop market share? Does Red Hat Enterprise Linux really have only 0.33% of the Linux desktop market share? Really?!? Take pride and say what you use.

When the truth comes out, Microsoft will not have a majority market share come June 30, 2011.

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Posted in Browser, Linux, Microsoft, Monthly Reports, RedHat, this blog, Windows | 16 Comments

Share the Knowledge with Freedom: Partimus

How do we learn?

When I was in elementary school, the method of work submission was a notebook and a standard number two pencil. Handwriting, not computing, was a daily class. A teacher told me once that the pencil was empowering so use it for all it is worth.

Microsoft products were not used in my school until my final year of high school and that was the first time I used Microsoft Works for Macintosh. The teachers saw my enthusiasm for technology so I was sent to private university. There I learned how to use Microsoft Powerpoint with other 16-year-olds. The university offered to give me credit for my study if I could pay the $15,000 a semester to enrol there full time. Coming from a middle class home, I went to a public community college instead for a 10th of the price. What did I use as an office suite my freshman year of college? The market share holder at the time: Corel Word Perfect.

Money is a huge factor when parents and children are selecting a school at all levels.

Today’s schools in America are strapped for cash. Assuming the school has computers, technology refreshes are expensive. Donations from the community are absolutely necessary. What do students need to today to do their school work? At least a browser, email, and an office suite.

A school with no computers in 2010 is like a student without a pencil.

A donation of a computer meets only a small fraction of the need. You need some software to use: an operating system, a web browser, and an office suite is a good start. Typing tutors, art design software, multimedia, math and reading games are also in demand. Then enter the communication software like email services, blogs, and class management software. Unless you opt for a Free and Open Source software, it could cost about $2000 per workstation – easy. The good news that GNU/Linux operating system like Ubuntu offer these packages are available at no cost.

Before you say that Microsoft branded products like Windows, Exchange, Office, and Sharepoint are a requite for successful productive adulthood, what did you use in school? My answer: I used pencils.

Do you think you are up for the challenge of setting up some Ubuntu labs in your school district?

Say you have ten Ubuntu systems to donate. They are in top working condition. You install all the software the teachers and students could ever need. The principals buy-in to this plan. The teachers are on board. You decide to split the hardware between the two schools.

Great but it all takes resources….

The systems need somewhere to go, some power to use, a network to plug into, a place for students files, an internet connection, some way to print, backups, and some people to setup maintain the systems. It gets very complex, very quickly.

Who has the track record to deliver?

Partimus is a California Ubuntu LoCo Team and 501c(3) non-profit which has successfully deployed Linux on the desktop in 6 Bay-Area schools.

With everyday people like Partimus at work, Microsoft will lose a majority market share.

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Intro Post for for Fedora Planet

This is my first post to Fedora Planet. Content about the Fedora party at LISA to follow soon.

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Freedom Friends Features First Fedora 14

In celebration of the release of Fedora 14, Fedora FriendsĀ  will throw a party as a Birds-of-a-Feather session in cooperation with USENIX’s Large Installation System Administrators conference. *YOU* are invited…

The Fedora Project will host a Fedora 14 Release Party in Silicon Valley California.

WHEN: Tuesday November 9, 2010 at 9 P.M.

WHERE: San Jose Marriott, Convention Center second floor Willow Glen room.

ADDRESS: 301 South Market Street San Jose, California 95113

During the release party you will have the opportunity to…

  • Install Fedora 14, the freshest free software GNU/Linux distribution
  • Hear about new Fedora features such as Spice virtualization and systemd.
  • Learn about SELinux, a label-based security system.
  • Meet some people who contribute to Fedora and discuss how you can contribute.

Fun Fedora freebies will be on hand.

System Administrators, GNU/Linux Users, Free Software Enthusiasts, and Computing Hobbyists: all are welcome. This event is FREE and open to the general public as part of the Large Installation System Administrators conference [1].

Hope to see you there

Who will be there?

Fabulous Fedora Friends of course…

Tux will be there to answer questions about Free Software.

Ben Cotton, maintainer of the Fedora RPM Guide, will be on hand to discuss his success at Purdue University with Fedora and Red Hat Enterprise Linux. There he has over a thousand nodes deployed as high performance compute nodes managed by Condor and general desktop use.

David Nalley, SELinux enthusiast, can present his slides on deploying SELinux as he had at the Ohio LinuxFest.

Larry Cafiero, Fedora marketeer, will tell us the joys of introducing people to Free Software through Lindendence, Oregon State Wireless Active Learning Device project, and even his own daughter.

Karsten Wade, Fedora’s community gardener, will be there to welcome anyone who is interested in becoming a Fedora Project contributor.

Beth Lynn Eicher, yours truly and Fedora user since release one, will be there to be the masters of ceremony.

Show up and celebrate Fedora 14 with us regardless of what operating system you use. Who knows? You could become Fedora’s 26 million user.

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Update on Microsoft’s Market Share: Web Browsers

Microsoft lacks a majority market share on web browsers.

This is not news to the regular readers of whatwillweuse.com where we made this declaration in January 2010. Nor is this a surprise to the market share watchers at w3counter.com who now report 43.3% Internet Explorer market share. Its also worth noting that W3Schools reports a dismal 31.1% Microsoft browser market share. Large audience sites such as wikipedia.org report less than 50% IE users. This September, major market share counter statcounter.com reports 49.87% market share for Internet Explorer. The evidence is overwhelming that Microsoft has lost the browser war.

Those who follow exclusively Net Applications’ market share reports see the September 2010 market share at 59.65% Internet Explorer. This is discouraging news for Microsoft since the trend is on track IE decrease which will yield less than 50% for their June 2011 report.

What do you think – Comment please

Does more than half of the Internet-using world use Microsoft Internet Explorer?

Will Internet Explorer 9 regain, maintain, or lose Microsoft’s browser fan base?

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